Travel Catering Research

Europe - April - June 2006 Forecast

Passenger Numbers by Overall Route (millions)

	Jan-Mar '06	Jan-Mar '05	% change	Apr-Jun '05	Forecast
Europe	54.32	53.35	1.81%	65.79	66.99
Intercontinental	17.00	16.32	4.19%	17.86	18.60
Total	71.32	69.67	2.37%	83.65	85.63

As overall passenger numbers are slightly down compared to the previous quarter. However, compared to same quarter of last year and the forecast showed a slightly larger figure for this period.

Passenger Numbers by Seat Class (millions)

	Jan-Mar '06	Jan-Mar '05	% change	Apr-Jun '05	Forecast
First	2.53	2.47	2%	2.97	3.04
Business	13.46	13.15	2%	15.78	16.16
Economy	55.34	54.06	2%	64.90	66.43

The rate of growth in First and Business and Economy classes have been about 2% in comparison to the same period in 2005. The figure of passenger indicates is still in line with the growth compared to 2005.

Passenger Numbers by Carrier (millions)

	Jan-Mar '06	Jan-Mar '05	% change	Apr-Jun '05	Forecast
Air France/KLM	16.24	15.39	5.52%	17.95	18.94
Alitalia	-	-	-	-	-
British Airways	8.11	8.10	0.04%	9.15	9.16
Iberia	6.40	6.18	3.51%	7.24	7.50
Lufthansa	11.47	11.19	2.57%	13.57	13.92
SAS Group	8.53	7.30	16.91%	9.36	10.94
easyJet	7.46	6.83	9.07%	7.58	8.26
Ryanair	7.70	6.73	14.34%	8.55	9.78

Overall, the major European carriers saw a small dip compare to the previous quarter. Airlines remain under the impact of high oil prices which inevitably put further pressure on margin. British Airways showed only a slight growth of 0.04% compared to the same quarter in 2005. The low cost carriers still have outstanding growth despite the high cost of fuel.

Estimated Complimentary Meal Numbers by Route (millions)

	Jan-Mar '06	Jan-Mar '05	% change	Apr-Jun '05	Forecast
Europe (non-domestic)	16.79	13.93	20.54%	17.50	21.10
Europe – Africa	3.98	3.86	3.00%	3.61	3.73
Europe – Middle East	1.78	1.62	8.24%	1.80	1.95
Europe – Atlantic	12.65	12.90	-1.95%	15.11	14.72
Far East/Australasia	6.32	5.53	14.19%	5.71	6.52
Totals	41.54	37.90	9.61%	43.80	48.00

Meal numbers reflect trends in passenger numbers. Across the figures, Atlantic were down by 1.95% compared to the same quarter of 2005 whereas the Non domestic and Far East / Australia have continued to show a good growth.

Headlines

SN Brussels Airlines and Virgin Express

SN Brussels Airlines and Virgin Express announced they will merge into a single carrier with a new name and two distinct products, a basic service for price-sensitive passengers and an upgraded service for time-sensitive customers seeking greater convenience and flexibility. The new airline, expected to be in business by the start of the 2007 summer schedule, will expand its long-haul operations, most likely in North Atlantic but also in Africa, possibly through a stake in Cameroon Airlines. The group is in talks to replace its three 280-seat A330s with five or six 220-seat long-haul aircraft. Further details, as well as the new name and logo, will be unveiled later this year.

By striking a balance between the low-cost and network models, the new airline aims to stake a leadership position in Europe through its influence at Brussels Airport, where it will control 40% of the slots. It will revise its European network and expand long-haul services.

Source: http://www.atwonline.com/news/story.html?storyID=4563

Norwegian

Norwegian has decided to invade an already-crowded Polish low-cost market and intends to hire Polish flight crew for the operation. The LCC announced yesterday that it will open a base in Warsaw and operate flights to three Spanish cities, France and its Oslo hub. It will base two aircraft at Warsaw, where it will compete with LOT Polish Airlines subsidiary Centralwings, SkyEurope Airlines and Wizz Air, among others.

It did not release a launch date but said tickets will go on sale today. It will start with services to the following cities: Alicante thrice-weekly, Girona-Costa Brava thrice-weekly, Malaga four-times-weekly, Nice four-times-weekly and Oslo daily.

Source: http://www.atwonline.com/news/story.html?storyID=4625

Ryanair

Ryanair announced on 11 April 2006 that they are adding a further 11 new destinations to be served from their base at Liverpool John Lennon airport, following their decision to base two more 189 seat Boeing 737-800 aircraft at the Airport from October 2006 onwards. This now takes the total number of scheduled destinations available from Liverpool to 57. The Irish has chosen to commence services to an exciting and diverse range of destinations. They will fly to Aberdeen and Inverness in Scotland, Alghero on the Italian island of Sardinia, Ancona on Italy’s Adriatic coast, Kaunas in Lithuania, Krakow, Poznan and Wroclaw in Poland, Santander and Santiago in northern Spain and Tampere in Finland. The new routes will operate three times weekly (except Aberdeen and Inverness seven times weekly and Tampere four times weekly) from 3 October 2006.

Source: : # 784.CAT14

Charter

The Travel catering Research Centre at the University of Surrey have recently published a report entitled 'European Charter Airlines and In-flight Catering Provision. Please contact Professor Peter Jones (p.jones@surrey.ac.uk) for further details.

Explanations

Passenger Numbers by Route

The data in this table is derived from the Monthly Traffic Snapshots found on the Association of European Airlines (AEA) web pages.

% change - This compares the last full quarter of this year with the same quarter in the previous year.

Forecast - The forecast is based on the trend derived from the equivalent quarter of the previous year and the percentage change in the last full quarter.

Passenger Numbers by Seat Class

The data in this table is derived from data found on Euromonitor’s web pages. The seat class data is defined by country and is then applied to the major carrier for that country.

Passenger Numbers by Carrier

The data in this table is derived from the individual carrier’s websites.

% change – Please see above.

Forecast – Please see above.

Estimated Complimentary Meal Numbers by Route

The data in this table is calculated by taking the total passenger numbers provided by the AEA (this specifically excludes budget airlines and charter passenger numbers) and applying a multiplier to provide an estimate of the total number of meals provided to passengers. The multipliers used are based upon consensus meal values agreed upon by a panel of experts and are subject to change on a monthly basis.