Travel Catering Research

Asia - October to December 2005 Forecast

Passenger Numbers by Route (millions)

	Jul-Sept '05	Jul-Sept '04	% change	Oct-Dec '04	Forecast
Domestic	18.12	18.49	-1.99%	17.78	17.43
Intercontinental	21.47	20.69	3.76%	21.18	21.97
Total	39.60	39.19	1.05%	38.96	39.37

The trend of the intercontinental market shows a continued small growth while the domestic market continues to show a small decline. The tourist market shows a continued gain in confidence to visit Asia following the events of December 2004.

Passenger Numbers by Seat Class (millions)

	Jul-Sept '05	Jul-Sept '04	% change	Oct-Dec '04	Forecast
First	2.60	2.60	0.31%	2.58	2.58
Business	4.20	4.20	0.05%	4.20	4.20
Coach	32.80	32.39	1.24%	32.18	32.58

When compared to the previous quarter no significant changes have been noted. Again, while the European and North American markets show slight growth of 5% and 8% respectively for the same period of time in the 3rd quarter.

Estimated Complimentary Meal Numbers by Route (millions)

	Jul-Sep '05	Jul-Sep '04	% change	Oct-Dec '04	Estimate
Domestic	14.68	9.25	58.77%	8.89	14.12
International	33.51	31.04	7.95%	31.76	34.29
Total	48.19	40.29	19.61%	40.66	48.63

Forecast meals on domestic flights has increased compared with last year. This is because the Expert Panel has revised upwards it assessment of the proportion of airline offering complimentary meals on these routes. This estimate is greatly affected by the actions of one or two airlines that have strong domestic traffic (such as Qantas)

Passenger Numbers by Carrier (millions)

	Jul-Sept '05	Jul-Sept '04	% change	Oct-Dec '04	Forecast
Cathay Pacific	4.10	3.63	13.01%	3.63	4.10
Japan Airlines	15.58	15.92	-2.08%	15.08	14.77
Malaysia Air	4.79	4.38	8.20%	4.66	5.04
Qantas	6.24	6.42	-2.70%	6.37	6.20
Singapore Airways	4.35	4.05	7.33%	4.20	4.51
Thai Air	4.58	4.79	-4.46%	5.01	4.79

Cathay Pacific, Malaysia Air and Singapore Airways have shown slight growth in this quarter compared to the same period last year. Japan Airlines has declined nearly 2%.

Headlines

Emirates

An enhanced economy class will be implemented gradually across the carrier's network from 1 November 2005. It also is retrofitting its 777-200s with the in flight entertainment system currently available on its A340-500 and 777-300ER aircraft. (Reuters)

Already considered the Middle East's fastest growing and busiest airport, a total of 21.7 million passengers passed through Dubai International Airport in 2004. On completion of the expansion programme in 2008, Dubai International Airport will have the capacity to handle over 70 million passengers annually. (Momberger 10 Aug 2005 766.CAT3)

Tiger Airways

Tiger Airways expects passenger numbers to hit 3 million next year as it takes delivery of new aircraft and launches new routes. The fast-expanding carrier carried just over 500,000 passengers in its first year of operations and expects numbers to rise to 3 million in 2006 when it takes delivery of five new aircraft. Tiger Airways flies from Singapore to Macau, Thailand, Vietnam, Indonesia and the Philippines, competing with Malaysia's AirAsia and a partnership of Valueair and Qantas Airways' associate Jetstar Asia (Airwise News).

Eva Air

The Taiwan-based carrier, has unveiled the first of its new B.777-300ERs which will be introduced on the Taipei - Bangkok - London route from 15 September 2005. The aircraft is equipped with steam ovens, ideal for preparing Chinese food (Momberger 10 Aug 2005 766.CAT20).

Bangkok Airways

In 2005, Bangkok Airways has opened four new routes, mainly to China.

India

The Indian domestic aviation market is forecast to grow at 20% per annum up to 2010 according to Norest Goyal, Chairman of Jet Airways.

Explanations

Passenger Numbers by Route

The data in this table is derived from the area's major individual carrier's websites. These carriers include Cathay Pacific, Japan Airlines, Korean Airlines, Malaysia Air, Qantas, Singapore Airways and Thai Air.

% change - This compares the last full quarter of this year with the same quarter in the previous year.

Forecast - The forecast is based on the trend derived from the equivalent quarter of the previous year and the percentage change in the last full quarter.

Passenger Numbers by Seat Class

The data in this table is derived from data found on Euromonitor's web pages. The seat class data is defined by country and is then applied to the major carrier for that country. Two countries are not reported on and the average seat class ratio is applied to these.

Passenger Numbers by Carrier

The data in this table is derived from the individual carrier's websites. The Association of Asia Pacific Airlines (AAPA) data is derived from Monthly International Statistics as found on their website.

% change – Please see above.

Forecast – Please see above.

Estimated Complimentary Meal Numbers by Route

The data in this table is calculated by taking the total passenger numbers by route and applying a multiplier to provide an estimate of the total meals provided to passengers. The multipliers used are based upon consensus meal values agreed upon by a panel of experts and are subject to change on a monthly basis.